Sudan’s long-running war has shredded the country, and after two-and-a-half years the humanitarian catastrophe teeters on a knife-edge. Trump says he will engage after a White House briefing by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, marking a potentially seismic shift in a conflict that has drawn in regional powers for years. The pledge, framed as a new push to end violence, arrives as civilians endure starvation and displacement on a scale rarely seen since the Darfur era.
Behind the scenes, the Quad plan—US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—has been shaping diplomacy for months. Rubio and Massad Boulos have hammered out a three-pronged approach: ceasefire, unfettered humanitarian access, and negotiations toward a civilian government. But the battles in Khartoum to Darfur are deeply entwined with Sunni Islamist politics and long-standing regional rivalries: Egypt and Saudi Arabia leaning toward the army, the UAE arming the RSF, and the UAE claiming innocence while still denying backing. The RSF, led by Hemedti, captured el-Fasher after a 500-day siege; the army’s Gen Burhan vows to fight on. Episodes of violence, including trophy videos, illustrate the brutality that any settlement must confront, and the diplomatic road ahead remains perilous.
Trump’s leverage could tilt the balance, but success hinges on convincing UAE to realign its support toward a ceasefire, a task complicated by its Abraham Accords ties and competition with Saudi Arabia. The UAE reportedly arms the RSF, though it denies it; Saudi and Egypt have different views on the Muslim Brotherhood; Burhan’s coalition includes Islamists, which complicates UAE alignment. Even if a ceasefire emerges, the humanitarian funding gap—about $3 billion—screams that aid alone cannot sustain peace; budgets are stretched; donors must step up.
Sudan’s civilians demand democracy and justice after the 2019 uprising. The risk remains that regional mediation pushes Sudan toward Arab influence rather than democratic civilian rule, and that de facto partition becomes a reality. The US has relied on quiet diplomacy rather than public reprimands of the UAE, which signals the fragile nature of external pressure. The question remains whether the Quad plan can close the gap left by six months of failed mediations and deliver a truce strong enough to withstand renewed offensives and a volatile harvest season.