A leaked European Commission document reveals a bold push to flood Europe’s heavy transport with biofuels, a plan the Commission says will slash emissions and revive the bioeconomy. But the cost could be steep: the draft relies on feedstocks from crops and forests, raising alarms that food security and forest carbon sinks may be sacrificed for speed.
Aviation and maritime are labeled the decarbonisation Achilles heel, currently accounting for around 8.4% of the EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions. The plan argues for greater uptake of renewable fuels, but scale remains a crisis, with a 2023 European Court of Auditors audit warning about sustainability issues, biomass availability and costs, and a lack of a long‑term perspective deterring investors.
Demand is expected to rise from 2025, driven by ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime, the bloc’s laws designed to increase renewable fuel uptake in heavy transport.
The document notes that Europe’s biomass energy use was 29% in 2022, a figure that has grown by 14% over the past decade, highlighting both momentum and pressure on feedstock supply.
A possible EU‑Ukraine agricultural deal could help meet demand, given Ukraine’s vast land resources—41.3 million hectares of total land, with 32.7 million hectares arable. Safeguards restricting imports of grains and oil are part of the agreement; if those safeguards are lifted, Ukraine could play a key role in the biofuel supply chain.
The EU’s bioeconomy strategy is moving forward. The Commission will publish the third review of the bioeconomy since its 2012 launch, and the sector was reported to generate up to €2.7 trillion in 2023, up from €812 billion in 2022, underscoring its role in competitiveness but highlighting external competition from the United States and China and persistent single‑market barriers that slow deployment.
Environmental groups remain skeptical, warning that the drive for biofuels could crowd out more sustainable power and threaten food security, while the Commission argues that the policy needs a long‑term perspective and clear sustainability criteria. The outcome will hinge on implementation, investment in advanced and nonfood feedstocks, and how quickly scalable production can be achieved without eroding other climate goals.